Biden Resignation’s Betting Impact: Can Harris Trump Donald?

46th President Sudden Announcement Reshapes Race With VP in the Lead

July 23, 2024 111 4 minutes readPolitics News

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election took another wild swing Sunday.

For the first time in nearly six decades, an incumbent decided against seeking re-election, though Joe Biden did not remove himself from the presidential race easily. Still, Biden did step aside, clearing the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to presume the candidacy, which she will undoubtedly do at next month’s DNC in Chicago.

Harris expects to become the second female presidential nominee, with fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton serving as the other in 2016. Clinton, who endorsed Harris on Sunday, lost to this term’s GOP nominee Donald Trump in a narrow victory.

Despite Harris’ sudden history-making campaign — aside from trying to become the first woman to win the presidency, she could also become the second person of color to lead the United States — her entry is drastically reshaping the race. Trump was a heavy favorite after the GOP convention last week in Milwaukee, yet he and his campaign need now prepare for a challenge with Harris’ entry.

pic.twitter.com/RMIRvlSOYw

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024

Here’s a look at what impact Biden’s resignation will have on betting.

How did we get here?

Biden, the 81-year-old incumbent, was on pace to seek re-election as the oldest presidential candidate in U.S. history. Trump, the 77-year-old who was the second-oldest candidate when he ran against Biden in 2020, will now sur Biden as the oldest presidential nominee in the nation’s history.

But Biden’s disastrous performance at his first presidential debate in Atlanta on June 27 drastically upset the race’s landscape. Biden’s polling cratered, despite the public generally disliking Trump, creating a race between two of the least-popular candidates in U.S. history.

That drama benefited Trump, whose odds for President of the USA lead ballooned from -170 to -400 over three weeks after the debate and being shot in a failed assassination attempt in Pennsylvania.

Republicans rode a wave of heavy momentum through the RNC convention, particularly after naming 39-year-old Ohioan J.D. Vance as Trump’s running mate.

Democrats reportedly had been pleading with Biden to exit the race to no avail, until the weekend, when the 46th President finally relented and endorsed Harris as his successor. Biden is the first incumbent since Lyndon Johnson in 1968 to not seek re-election in a term in which he is eligible.

Trump is still favored at -200, which gives him a 67% implied probability. But that implied probability was at 78% just a week ago, and Democrats have seized momentum with Harris, who is a fresh voice and face in what was shaping up to be a race between two extremely unlikable candidates.

Who is Kamala Harris?

Oddly, a lifelong politician who has been the president’s right-hand woman for four-plus years is a relative unknown. Harris has kept a relatively low profile until Biden’s resignation impacted betting.

Harris should be a breath of fresh air to many seeking an alternative to Trump, a convicted felon who faced impeachment twice during his first term, and Biden, whom many perceive as too old and worn down to lead. She is a former prosecutor and California attorney general who is nearly 20 years younger than Trump and earned Biden’s VP nomination as a senator from the Golden State.

She already made history as the first female VP in U.S. history, becoming the highest-ranking woman in the nation’s nearly 250-year existence, and is trying to become both the first woman and woman of color to win the Oval Office.

If you follow political news, you know Harris has won endorsements from just about every major Democrat, including Biden, the Clintons, Barack Obama, and perceived potential Biden replacements Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.

Newsom, Whitmer, and Shapiro, each of whom is the governor of his/her state, could make intriguing VP candidates for Harris as could Kentucky governor Andy Beshear or North Carolina governor Roy Cooper.

Cooper, Whitmer, and Shapiro each have won gubernatorial elections in swing states that Trump won in 2016, and Beshear is in his second term as governor in the deep-red commonwealth.

Hypothetical Races

Harris is an underdog in a head-to-head race against Trump, sitting at +175 to win the presidency against Trump. The Democratic Party is only a +150 underdog to win the presidency, despite the fact the GOP sits at -230 to take back the Oval Office for just the second time since 2008.
Harris reportedly secured enough delegates to earn the Democratic nomination at the DNC Convention, which will run from Aug. 19-22. also that Trump led as a big favorite at -300 to be reelected at points on Election Night 2020, only for Biden to rebuff him.
Still, Trump currently favors his chances against Harris, but he wouldn’t be as strong a favorite against other potential Democratic challengers. Trump has -200 odds against Hillary Clinton, who would only be a +150 underdog. Whitmer, a rising star among Democrats, would be just a +125 underdog with Trump sitting at -165.
Gavin Newsom has +100 odds, or a 50% chance, against Trump’s -140 odds in a hypothetical matchup.
However, there is only one potential candidate that would be favored to defeat Trump in a presidential race. Michelle Obama, the wife of 44th President Barack Obama, is a -170 favorite against Trump, who is a +130 underdog in a potential head-to-head race for the Oval Office.

Obama reportedly shows no interest in the nomination, especially since Biden was her husband’s VP for eight years from 2009-17. She will undoubtedly attend the DNC convention and speak on Harris’ behalf, as the latter is likely to remain the candidate come November.

Impact of Biden’s Resignation on Election and Betting

Still, this has been one of the wildest presidential in U.S. history, with loads of twists and turns, especially over the past month. We’ll see what impact Biden’s resignation will have on betting and the course of U.S. history over the next three-and-a-half months ahead of the Nov. 5 election.

For Politics betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.