Can The Phillies Take Advantage Of Beat-Up Twins?

The Atlanta Braves.

It’s safe to say that they’ll be in the playoffs when looking at their MLB division odds.

Meanwhile, the Phillies will take on the Minnesota Twins, who can’t relax as much as the Phillies. The Twins are five games out of the AL Central and fighting amongst many for an AL Wild Card spot.

But that’s only good for a Wild Card spot. Despite being ten games above .500, the Twins are just a game away from being knocked out of the AL Wild Card.

Every series is super critical for the Twins. So, can the Twins knock off the Phillies in a three-game series to start the week?

The sportsbooks believe the Phillies are more likely to win Game 1. The Phillies are -110, with the total at 8. However, the Over is juiced to -120.

Here’s our in-depth Phillies vs Twins preview for the entire three-game series.

Phillies Activated J.T. Realmuto

The Phillies have optioned Rafael Marchan back to Triple-A to add J.T. Realmuto off the Injured List.

Realmuto had an extended stay on the IL with a knee injury. His last game was on June 9; we’re now in late July. But before his Il stint, he had hit a .261 average with seven home runs and 20 RBIs in 51 games.

When he was injured, Trea Turner was also injured. Now, the Phillies will have the deepest lineup they’ve had in quite some time.

Twins Can’t Catch Break

The Minnesota Twins have added Chris Paddack and Carlos Correa to the injured list. Correa and Paddack a long list of players on the injured list for Minnesota.

Yet, the Twins are still fighting for a playoff spot in the AL. Imagine the Twins if the entire team could get healthy simultaneously.

Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, and Kyle Farmer are also unavailable due to injuries.

Phillies vs Twins Preview & Odds For Game 1:

RL: Phillies -1.5 (+137) ML: Phillies -110, O/U: 8 +120/+100

 

Philadelphia Phillies vs Twins Preview

The Phillies will roll with lefty Ranger Suarez. He’s 10-4 with a 2.76 ERA but hasn’t been nearly as good over the last 30 days.

The potential National League Cy Young award candidate has allowed a .181 ISO and wOBA of .378 to his last 102 batters. He’s also struck out 16.7% of batters over the previous month and has allowed more than 50% of hard .

Suarez has still induced a high rate of grounders, but he’ll be in line to face a Twins lineup that has struck out just 11.8% of the time against lefties over the last month. This projected lineup is filled with only righties to go up against Suarez, the lefty.

In addition, the lineup has hit a .378 wOBA against lefties. They’re aggressive at the plate and finding ways on.

Conversely, Suarez will compete against Bailey Ober of the Twins. Ober is a right-handed pitcher, who has tallied 33% of strikeouts over the last month. The Twins righty has also allowed just 4% of walks and has given up only 17.5% of line drives in the previous 30 days. That’s one of the many reasons for his wOBA of .246 against his last 100 batters faced.

The Phillies have a stacked lineup. But overall, the lineup of notable names has only hit a .183 ISO and wOBA of .321 over the last 30 days. The lineup has also struck out 21.7% of the time and has earned only 7.5% of walks.

The Phillies don’t stack up nearly as well as the Twins do. Let’s take Bailey Ober and the Twins at +100. That’s one of our many MLB predictions today.

The Phillies will pitch Zack Wheeler in the second game of the series. Wheeler is a right-handed ace with a 2.70 ERA on the season.

The veteran righty has held his last 98 batters to a .079 ISO and wOBA of .247. He’s also added 27.6% of strikeouts and has walked just 6.1% of batters in the last month.

While the Twins don’t strike out at a high rate, the lineup has less power and a lower wOBA against righties than lefties. Minnesota does work walks more, but Wheeler is typically good at limiting those.

Wheeler will duel Simeon Woods Richardson of the Twins. Woods Richardson is a right-handed pitcher, 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA on the season. He’s recently walked a high rate of lefties and has allowed a high ISO to righties over the last 30 days. He’s not nearly as consistent as Wheeler and has only struck out 21.3% of batters over the previous month.

In addition, Woods Richardson has allowed 29% of fly balls and has only induced 40.3% of ground balls. He’s also given up nearly 42% of hard .

Wheeler will help the Phillies add a win in Game 2.

The Phillies have not confirmed a starter for Wednesday’s game. However, Aaron Nola would be in line for the start. He’s struggled against lefties but has dominated righties over the last 30 days.

The Twins haven’t announced their starter either. This would’ve been Chris Paddack’s start, but he’s injured, so Minnesota must find a replacement.

If Nola is on the mound, it’d be Phillies all day to close out this Phillies vs Twins preview.

---

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• Tigers vs Guardians Predictions: Cleveland Slumping at Wrong Time
• Cardinals vs Pirates Series Odds: Pittsburgh Gets the Nod
• Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics Series Preview and Odds
• Orioles vs Rangers Betting: Both Lineups Have Struggled
• Red Sox Look to Make Statement Against Dodgers